A failed Issue 4 vote could leave Cincinnati Public Schools $30.6 million in the red by 2029, triggering potential state control of the region's largest school district.

The five-year, 7-mill property tax on the Nov. 3 ballot would generate about $66.3 million a year for CPS operations. For a home valued at $285,000, the district average, the levy would cost $698 annually, the Cincinnati Enquirer reported.

Without that revenue, CPS Treasurer Michael Gustin projected the deficit would balloon to $156 million by 2031, according to a forecast he presented at the board's Aug. 17 meeting. The district has already received notice from the state that it is in "fiscal caution status," Fox 19 reported.

Several east-side CPS schools would face those reductions. Kilgour School, Hyde Park School, Clark Montessori High School and Withrow University High School are all district schools. The CPS levy page lists possible cuts if the measure fails: closing or consolidating schools, increasing class sizes, cutting teaching positions, reducing school security, eliminating extracurricular programs and charging pay-to-play fees for athletics.

Transportation could change first. Gustin said the district would likely raise the minimum walk-to-school distance from 1 mile to 2 miles before students qualify for a bus, the Enquirer reported.

"When you get into state control, the state appoints a commission and the commission makes the decisions. There's no elected control to it; there's no local decision," Gustin told Fox 19 on Oct. 2.

As of Sept. 1, four Ohio school districts were under state fiscal oversight, including nearby Mount Healthy City Schools, which declared fiscal emergency in 2024.

CPS has already made deep cuts. To balance its current budget, the district eliminated 81 central office positions, 12 social workers, 10 assistant principals and eight counselors. Superintendent Shauna Murphy told Fox 19 on Oct. 2 that the district has endured three straight budget cycles of reductions.

The levy also arrives amid a statewide squeeze. Gov. Mike DeWine signed property tax cuts totaling roughly $3 billion on Dec. 19, 2025, to offset rising home values. But the state's school funding formula has not been updated to reflect those reforms, meaning CPS appears to have more local revenue than it actually does and continues to lose state aid, according to the Enquirer.

Not everyone supports the ask. Small business owner Rashida Pearson told Fox 19 on Oct. 2 that the district should improve before seeking more money, arguing taxpayers should not fund what she called a broken system.

The board voted Aug. 3 to place the property tax on the ballot after rescinding a previously approved income tax levy that drew bipartisan opposition, as WVXU first reported. Board member Kendra Mapp voted against the property tax, and Vice President Kareem Moncree-Moffett abstained.

Early in-person voting opened Tuesday, Oct. 6, at the Hamilton County Board of Elections, which is open 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on weekdays, as we reported that day. A new state law eliminates the previous four-day grace period for mail-in ballots; they must arrive by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day to count.